Mathematical modeling of economic processes on the basis of the reflection theory

Abstract

Abstract Doubtlessly, the process of modeling and planning economic processes is a complex procedure. The development of each specific economic system is built on plans, which are drawn up from forecasts. In this paper, the authors show the relationship between methods of exponential smoothing and autoregression. Further, the authors present the method of nonparametric selection of parameters in autoregressive models. Here, the algorithms used in the method give a comparative analysis of the results of the modeling process and retrospective forecasting is discussed. At the end of the paper, the authors give the basic recommendations on the usage of the presented method and its advantages.