Author:
Li Chen,Wang Li,Yu Qiao,Li Meng,Wang Bolun,Zhou Yingjian,Zhang Zhewen
Abstract
Abstract
With a large number of new components and new technologies widely used in power system, the method of power equipment outage probability based on law of large number will no longer be applicable due to the lack of statistical data. This paper considers the high order uncertainty of component failure probability under the condition of small sample size and uses interval values to represent the reliability parameters of the component when carrying out the risk assessment of power system, and propose Belief Universal Generating Function by combining Universal Generating Function with Belief Function Theory. This method can effectively avoid over estimation in interval arithmetic and get a more accurate interval value of power system risk assessment index.
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy
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