Committed emissions reductions available from replacement of coal-fired power plants with nuclear plants

Abstract

Abstract Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, including the predominant energy generation method in many countries, coal power plants, face challenges resulting from the pursuit of climate policy. Modelling performed by intergovernmental organizations detailing scenarios to reach global decarbonization goals include the reduction of burning of fossil fuels and an increase in electrical demand. Replacing coal-fired power plants with technology that produces lower emissions offers a potential solution. In this paper we calculate emissions reductions available from converting coal-fired power plants to nuclear plants in both the U.S. and India, the countries having the world’s largest coal-fired power generation capacity outside of China. We consider potential timelines for the coal to nuclear conversion, and then determine the resulting emissions to help us better understand the impact that a fleet-scale nuclear conversion campaign could have on each nation’s decarbonization goals. Our results indicate that, while the U.S. and India presently have similar installed coal generation capacity and annual emissions, India’s remaining committed emissions are approximately five times greater than those of the U.S. for both a base case and a 46-plant conversion case. We conclude that converting coal-fired power plants to nuclear plants can offer emissions reductions, but that the national impact relies heavily on fleet composition. Although older fleets have the potential to offer annual emissions reductions from retirements and conversions, converting younger fleets can have a much greater impact on committed emissions, which is a better indicator of the potential of coal-to-nuclear conversion in global decarbonization.