Land surface processes response to warming and wetting trend in Northwest China

Abstract

Abstract The climate in Northwest China (NWC) has undergone a warming and wetting trend (WWT) since the 1980s, which has attracted considerable attention from the scientific and policy communities. However, the majority of previous studies have focused on overall effects of WWT, and very few have examined how land surface system responds to climate warming or wetting trend, respectively. For this purpose, this study uses the Community Land Model (CLM5) driven by the Chinese Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) to conduct four modeling experiments: a control experiment (CTRL) and three sensitivity experiments, in which the annual trend of air temperature (NonWarm), precipitation (NonWet), and both (NonWWT) are removed from the CMFD from 1979 to 2018. Compared to CTRL, the land hydrological variables (i.e. soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration) show a visible reduction in magnitude, interannual variability, as well as annual trend in NonWet, while they are enhanced in NonWarm. In both NonWarm and NonWet, the magnitude and trend of both net radiation and sensible heat fluxes increase, with a more pronounced change in NonWWT. Further analysis indicates that the land surface processes are more sensitive to wetting trend than to warming trend. Among all land surface hydrological variables and energy variables, runoff and snow cover fraction are the most susceptible to climate change. Overall, the effects of climate change in Ta and Pr on surface hydrological variables are non-linearly offsetting, while the effects on surface energy budgets are non-linearly superimposed. Compared to warming trend, wetting trend plays a larger impact on the variability of land surface processes in NWC.