Subseasonal prediction of the 2020 Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea marine heatwave

Abstract

Abstract The 2020 marine heatwave (MHW) in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and Coral Sea led to mass coral bleaching. Sea surface temperature anomalies reached +1.7 °C for the whole of the GBR and Coral Sea and exceeded +2 °C across broad regions (referenced to 1990–2012). The MHW reached Category 2 (Strong) and warm anomalies peaked between mid-February and mid-March 2020. The MHW’s peak intensity aligned with regions of reduced cloud cover and weak wind speeds. We used a MHW framework to assess the ability of an operational coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction system (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Seasonal version 1) to capture the MHW’s severity, duration, and spatial extent. For initial week predictions, the predicted MHW severity generally agreed with the magnitude and spatial extent of the observed severity for that week. The model ensemble mean did not capture the MHW’s development phase at lead times beyond the first week. The model underestimated the MHW’s spatial extent, which reached up to 95% of the study area with at least Moderate severity and up to 43% with at least Strong severity. However, most forecast ensemble members correctly predicted the period of Strong severity in the first week of the model forecast. The model correctly predicted MHW conditions to persist from mid-February to mid-March but did not capture the end of the MHW. The inability to predict the end of the event and other periods of less skilful prediction were related to subseasonal variability owing to weather systems, including the passage of tropical cyclones not simulated in the model. On subseasonal time scale, evaluating daily to weekly forecasts of ocean temperature extremes is an important step toward implementing methods for developing operational forecast extremes products for use in early warning systems.