Seeing the forest for the trees: implementing dynamic representation of forest management and forest carbon in a long-term global multisector model

Abstract

Abstract Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in understanding the interaction between the carbon cycle and the integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing forest management decisions such as planting and harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic forest harvest model in a global state of the art multi-sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We implement an approach that explicitly tracks forest age and generates rotation ages for forest harvest that are responsive to changes in wood prices, changes in forest age and regional preferences for forest rotation. Furthermore, the forest sector in GCAM competes for investment with other land use types in the future years based on expected profit. Our baseline scenario results indicate that with the new forest harvest model, the current global wood product demand in GCAM can be met with minimal loss of old growth forest through the age-based harvest decisions. We find that economic pressure for deforestation and consequent loss of forest carbon is a bigger driver of global forest change than wood harvests, especially in developing regions. Under alternative scenarios where an economic value is placed on carbon across the terrestrial and energy systems, while there is an increase in forest plantations, there can be corresponding decreases in forest cover in some regions as forest land competes with land for bio-energy crops. When the carbon in forests is assigned a price, we find that the average rotation age for wood harvests can be reduced across regions to harvest forests in a more carbon efficient manner.