The evolution of the Fram Strait sea ice volume export decomposed by age: estimating with parameter-optimized sea ice-ocean model outputs

Abstract

Abstract Sea ice export through the Fram Strait is crucial in the dynamic evolution of Arctic sea ice and can further modulate Arctic sea ice mass balance as well as the ocean thermohaline circulation. In this study, based on outputs from a parameter-optimized and fully physical ocean–sea ice coupled model and sea ice age observation, we estimate sea ice volume (SIV) flux and its age evolution via the Fram Strait. The estimate of mean annual SIV flux is about 1605 ± 315 km3 yr−1 without a significant trend for 1979–2021. Combining with sea ice age data, the variation of the sea ice age and its corresponding SIV flux are obtained for 1984–2020. The SIV flux of 1st-year ice significantly increases as expected, but it still contributes very little to the total flux in the 2010s with a proportion of 3.5%. SIV fluxes of different ages in multi-year ice present diverse variations. The proportions of 2nd-year ice and 3rd-year ice in the annual SIV flux show an extreme increase from 6.8% and 25.0% in the 1980s to 49.0% and 38.8% in the 2010s, respectively, while the proportions of 4th-year ice and 5th-year and older (5+ year) ice significantly decrease from 22.8% and 45.0% in the 1980s to 7.1% and 1.6% in the 2010s, respectively. Meanwhile, the prevailing age of annual volume export via Fram Strait shifts from 4th-year and 5+ year ice to 2nd-year and 3rd-year ice around 2007/2008. It is worth noticing that the variation in Fram Strait ice export modulates the variation in Arctic SIV prior to 2008, but the reverse is true after 2008, indicating a decreasing influence of Fram Strait SIV export on Artic SIV variability with decreasing sea ice age. The results are beneficial to promote the understanding of the evolution of Fram Strait SIV export under the warming Arctic.