Potential impacts of reduced winter Kara Sea ice on the dipole pattern of cold surge frequency over the tropical western Pacific

Abstract

Abstract The impact of Arctic Sea ice melting on weather and climate extremes in the Northern Hemisphere has garnered widespread attention. Existing research has convincingly demonstrated the importance of this impact in mid-high latitudes, while its influence in areas beyond remains controversial. This study reveals the indirect influence of Kara Sea ice reduction on cold surge (CS) over the tropical western Pacific (TWP), with the East Asian jet stream serving as the connecting link. The leading mode of CSs over the TWP exhibits a zonal dipole characteristic, which is associated with cyclonic anomaly over the Philippine Sea. The enhanced cyclonic anomaly is caused by strengthened and northward-moved subtropical East Asian jet stream and weakened polar jet stream, which can lead to more CSs over the South China Sea and fewer CSs over the Philippine Sea. Such variations in the jet stream are contributed by the facilitated atmospheric blockings west of the Ural Mountains, which suppressed the circumpolar westerly winds and increased meridional temperature gradient in Northeast Asia. The connection between atmospheric blockings and Kara Sea ice can be confirmed through local vertical energy exchange. Simulations of the atmospheric response to the forcing of decreased Kara Sea ice support the proposed connection. Although there is no statistically significant correlation between tropical CSs and Kara Sea ice, this study highlights the potential impacts of Arctic climate change signal on weather and climate extremes over tropical regions.