Health vulnerability mapping for drought: a case study in a predominantly rural, agricultural state

Abstract

Abstract Drought is considered among the most devastating climate hazards impacting civilizations, including human health, throughout history. It causes cumulative damages based on the five generally categorized meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic, and ecological droughts. Reducing damages at the local, regional, and global levels requires a better understanding of human (health) vulnerability to drought. While there are different studies to distinguish and measure vulnerabilities for the five aforementioned conditions, there is minimal effort to identify vulnerabilities to health impacts from drought. Our study aims to develop an analysis of vulnerability for Nebraska based on the established health effects associated with drought. We considered vulnerability as the interaction between exposure to drought and different sensitivity measures for a timespan, including the highest drought levels in the 21st century. To calculate the total sensitivities, we extracted ten initial variables and applied two well-known methods of dimensionality reduction and (Weighted) Additive Overlays of percentile-ranked values. The result showed the inadequacy of the former method for our study. We also grouped the sensitivity variables into socioeconomic, environmental, and water-related intervention categories and developed related intensity maps showing different spatial patterns. We calculated the drought exposure levels by adding the intensity, duration, and frequency of drought over the study period (2012–2016) and developed total vulnerability maps to determine the ten most vulnerable counties, of which nine are rural. The resulting three intervention category maps can help related experts find priority areas within Nebraska, and the final vulnerability maps can help distinguish the areas of concern for general state-wide planning. While the results and some sensitivity variables are unique to Nebraska, the provided framework and the inclusion of two different methods can guide other regions in similar studies.