Assessing uncertainty in building material emissions using scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Abstract Global greenhouse gas emissions from the built environment remain high, driving innovative approaches to develop and adopt building materials that can mitigate some of those emissions. However, life-cycle assessment (LCA) practices still lack standardized quantitative uncertainty assessment frameworks, which are urgently needed to robustly assess mitigation efforts. Previous works emphasize the importance of accounting for the three types of uncertainties that may exist within any quantitative assessment: parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty. Herein, we develop a quantitative uncertainty assessment framework that distinguishes between different types of uncertainties and suggest how these uncertainties could be handled systematically through a scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). We demonstrate the framework’s decision-informing power through a case study of two multilevel ordinary Portland cement (OPC) manufacturing scenarios. The MCS utilizes a first-principles-based OPC life-cycle inventory, which mitigates some of the model uncertainty that may exist in other empirical-based cement models. Remaining uncertainties are handled by scenario specification or sampling from developed probability distribution functions. We also suggest a standardized method for fitting distributions to parameter data by enumerating through and implementing distributions based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The level of detail brought by the high-resolution parameter breakdown of the model allows for developing emission distributions for each process of OPC manufacturing. This approach highlights how specific parameters, along with scenario framing, can impact overall OPC emissions. Another key takeaway includes relating the uncertainty of each process to its contributions to total OPC emissions, which can guide LCA modelers in allocating data collection and refinement efforts to processes with the highest contribution to cumulative uncertainty. Ultimately, the aim of this work is to provide a standardized framework that can provide robust estimates of building material emissions and be readily integrated within any uncertainty assessment.