Analysis and Quantitative Study of China’s Oil and Gas Uncertainties during the “14th Five-Year Plan”

Abstract

Abstract As a mining industry which is vital to the national economy, the oil and gas industry is faced with various uncertainties from the exploration and development at the upstream, refining and production at the midstream to the transportation and sale at the downstream. With the implementation of the “Go Global” strategy of the oil and gas industry and the steady progress of the Belt and Road Initiative, a more comprehensive and accurate identification, classification and quantification of the uncertain factors facing the oil and gas industry is required by the “14th Five-Year Plan”. This paper first identifies and classifies the uncertain factors of the oil and gas industry and then analyzes the difference between those uncertain factors from the domestic and overseas perspectives. Different methods of quantifying the uncertainties are also designed from the three dimensions of resource, technology and economy. Based on the development trend of various factors during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, this paper predicts the quantitative results of uncertainties in the following 10 years.