Newly Industrialized Countries: Is There an Alternative to the Golden Billion?

Abstract

Abstract In order to identify the features of economic development and the historical fate of new industrial countries (NIC), an econometric analysis of their strategies and development dynamics since 1950 was carried out based on the parameters of real GDP growth rates and their standard deviation. 6 types of development were identified. The dynamics of development for 8 economic cycles and paired correlations between countries are estimated. 4 waves of growth rates and 5 waves of MSD were revealed. It is hypothesized that the correlation of growth rates shows the similarity of countries in their use of opportunities, and the correlation of MSD shows that of their responses to threats. Connection graphs are constructed and 3 clusters of countries with similar historical destinies are obtained as a result of the analysis. It is recorded that there are 3 groups of 11 countries with a similar development strategy. The other 10 have no development analogues. Determined: China applies import substitution and export strategies, it can become the leader of the NIC and compete with the global dominance of the OECD countries; the post-industrial development of the NIC cannot be based on a liberal, import-substituting or export strategy. As an alternative, a strategy for improving the living standards is proposed.