Effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of leptospirosis risk in western Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is known to have a significant impact on public health as it could speed the spread of zoonotic infections. The purpose of this study is to estimate the potential geographical distribution of the risk of leptospirosis – a bacterial infection caused by Leptospira spp and transmitted by rodents, in Western Java islands. The possible distribution of Leptospira was modelled by using MaxEnt ecological niche (EN) framework under various climate scenarios. Data for elevation and nineteen bioclimatic variables associated with temperature and precipitation were obtained from climate database. In general, the shift in the geographical distribution in leptospirosis occurrence is evident. The model shows that the probability of the leptospirosis occurrence is predicted to be high in the northern and central part of the islands. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation of wettest quarter were the more significant contributors to the dynamic of leptospirosis emergence. The study reveals that climate change will likely increase the probability for leptospirosis emergence over the islands, suggesting the importance of substantial mitigation efforts towards improving sanitation, hygiene and flood management, in addition to strengthening public health preventive and surveillance strategies at a local level.