An assessment and prognosis of water resources use in regions of the transboundary basin of the Ural River in the medium term

Abstract

Abstract An assessment and medium-term prognosis of water resources use in the transboundary basin of the Ural River, and adjacent regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan were represented in the paper. Prediction of water consumption is one of the most significant water resources management tasks in the transboundary river basins. Under a water deficit of water resources in the Ural River basin in hydrological droughts, data on prospective water consumption allows estimating possible problems of regular water use and ways of their solution for neighboring states. Data on the dynamics of water consumption from 1995 to 2019 and materials of prognoses for socio-economic development of the region in the medium term were used to research and calculate expected water use values. Based on statistical methods, taking into account parameters scheduled of the dynamics of the population and economic development in the regions, we calculated prospective volumes of water resources use in the Ural River basin areas. Projection of water resources’ use is represented in several scenarios following prognoses of socio-economic development in the regions. As a result, the structural forecasts were worked out according to a type of water consumption: domestic and utility, industrial, irrigation, and agricultural water use for each region of neighboring countries by 2024.