Abstract
Abstract
Fault dislocations significantly affect the performances of cross–fault tunnels. However, there is a lack of rapid and accurate methods for estimating the maximum fault dislocation that tunnels can withstand (i.e., the dislocation capacity of tunnels). This study systematically investigates the dislocation capacity of circular tunnels crossing strike–slip creeping faults while considering uncertainties in the lining parameters, rock strength, and crossing angles. Through pseudostatic numerical simulations, the dislocation capacities of tunnels under various working conditions were determined, and a probabilistic dislocation capacity model was developed using a support vector machine. The proposed model can estimate the probability distribution of the dislocation capacity of a tunnel, with its median closely aligned with the numerical result. Another advantage lies in its direct correlation with the lining parameters, rock strength, and crossing angles. This facilitates a rapid assessment of the tunnel dislocation capacity based on existing parameters. The dislocation capacity and vulnerability curves of a case tunnel are estimated using our probabilistic model, which serves as a demonstration. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is convenient for engineering applications and can assist in the design and optimization of cross–fault tunnels.