Abstract
Abstract
The capability of Cosmic Inflation to explain the latest
Cosmic Microwave Background and Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation data
is assessed by performing Bayesian model comparison within the
landscape of nearly three-hundred models of single-field slow-roll
inflation. We present the first Bayesian data analysis based on the
third-order slow-roll primordial power spectra. In particular, the
fourth Hubble-flow function ε4 remains unbounded while the
third function verifies, at two-sigma, ε3 ∈[-0.4,0.5],
which is perfectly compatible with the slow-roll predictions for the
running of the spectral index. We also observe some residual excess
of B-modes within the BICEP/Keck data favoring, at a
non-statistically significant level, non-vanishing primordial tensor
modes: log(ε1) > -3.9, at 68% confidence level. Then,
for 287 models of single-field inflation, we compute the Bayesian
evidence, the Bayesian dimensionality and the marginalized
posteriors of all the models' parameters, including the ones
associated with the reheating era. The average information gain on
the reheating parameter R
reh reaches 1.3 ± 0.18 bits, which
is more than a factor two improvement compared to the first Planck
data release. As such, inflationary model predictions cannot meet
data accuracy without specifying, or marginalizing over, the
reheating kinematics. We also find that more than 40% of the
scenarios are now strongly disfavored, which shows that the
constraining power of cosmological data is winning against the
increase of the number of proposed models. In addition, about 20%
of all models have evidences within the most probable region and are
all favored according to the Jeffreys' scale of Bayesian evidences.
Cited by
3 articles.
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