Diagnosing the curse of natural resources in Kuwait

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the phenomenon of natural resource curse in an oil abundant economy of Kuwait. The study estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Kuwait during the period 1980-2014 to assess the impact of prices and productivity factors on real effective exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach It uses time series econometric techniques, such as unit root tests, Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model, and Impulse Response Function, to estimate the model. Findings Unlike the results of the few other studies, the empirical results show a significant impact of the variables, such as balance of trade, economic growth, oil exports, interest rate, and inflation rate, on real effective exchange rate appreciation which indicates the existence of Dutch disease within the Kuwaiti economy. Similarly, the comparative analysis between changes in public expenditure and inflation rate shows the existence of Dutch disease in Kuwait during specific periods of time. Originality/value Natural resource curse or Dutch disease is a widely recognized phenomenon affecting the balance of economic activities in natural resource abundant countries. Symptoms of Dutch disease are perceived in several changes in the economy, particularly on price level, sectorial productivity, employment, and aggregate demand which in the long run worsen the country’s economic position and lower its international competitiveness. Dutch disease is not only a feature of natural resource abundant economies, but also can affect any economy with excessive revenue generating sector or high capital inflows which appreciates country’s exchange rate. However, the examination of Dutch disease in the economy is more important when investigating the impact on oil-producing countries (Apergis et al. 2014; Mohammadi and Jahan-Parvar, 2012; Jahan-Parvar and Mohammadi, 2011). Therefore, scholars studying Dutch disease phenomenon pay greater attention to cases of Dutch disease among oil-producing countries (i.e. Arezki and Ismail, 2013; Van der Ploeg and Venables, 2013; Jahan-Parvar, 2012; Cologni and Manera, 2013).