Revisiting fiscal deficit sustainability in South Africa

Abstract

PurposeThis study reexamines fiscal deficit sustainability in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThe study applies three cointegration testing approaches, namely testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, time-varying cointegration test and asymmetric cointegration test.FindingsThe results point to the existence of a level relationship between government revenue and spending. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenue and spending in South Africa is found to be characterized by breaks. As such, assuming a constant cointegrating slope may be misleading. Results from time-varying cointegration and an estimation of a cointegrated two-break model indicate that cointegrating coefficient has been time-varying but has remained less than 1 for the entire study period, indicating that fiscal deficits have been weakly sustainable. This finding is also confirmed by the results from an estimated asymmetric error correction model.Practical implicationsIn view of the findings, authorities should put in place policies to improve the fiscal budgetary stance and reinforce the sustainability of the fiscal deficits in South Africa. Among other things, South Africa could undertake reforms to state-owned companies to reduce their reliance on public funds, slow down the pace of the public sector wage growth and devise effective economic measures to boost long-term growth. In addition, tax compliance and other revenue collection measures should be enhanced for additional tax revenue.Originality/valueThe contribution of this study is twofold; first, the study uses a long series of annual data spanning over a century, from 1913 to 2020. Indeed, cointegration is better modeled using long spans of time series data. Second, to examine the existence of a level relationship between spending and revenue, the study uses cointegration tests which allow capturing time-variation in the cointegrating slope coefficient, and accounting for asymmetries in the relationship between government spending and revenue. It is important to allow for time-variation in the cointegrating slope coefficient, especially when it has been hardly treated in the empirical literature on fiscal deficit sustainability. Allowing for time-variation in the cointegrating slope coefficient helps us to analyze fiscal deficit sustainability by periods of time. Indeed, the degree of fiscal sustainability can change from one time period to another.