Inflation and interest rate dynamics in Ghana: the supply-side perspective

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to examine the impact of alterations in the path of monetary policy rates on inflation via the supply side of an emerging economy.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed semi-annual data covering the period 2007S1 to 2020S2 on the inflation rate, the combined outputs of industry and agriculture, the lending rate, and the monetary policy rate. The vector autoregression model was estimated and counterfactual simulation exercises were conducted.FindingsThe study revealed that a move from a higher to a lower monetary policy rate regime resulted in a shift in inflation from a higher to a lower regime. In particular, a 200-basis point reduction in the monetary policy rate over the simulation horizon produces a 1.3% fall in the inflation rate over the same period.Research limitations/implicationsThe study has a limitation due to the unavailability of a long-span dataset on all relevant variables. As a result, it is important to exercise caution when interpreting the study's findings. A potential area for further research is to explore how changes in interest rates impact inflation in the real economy by utilising other multiple-variable time series techniques.Practical implicationsIt is the opinion of the authors that for inflation in Ghana to move to a lower regime, conscious efforts should be made by the monetary authorities to gradually move from a regime of a high monetary policy rate to a lower one.Social implicationsIn particular, a 200-basis point reduction in the MPR over the simulation horizon produces a 1.3% fall in the inflation rate over the same period.Originality/valueThis study enhances the authors' knowledge of how monetary policy can affect inflation in developing countries through the supply-side channel.