Impacts of changing weather patterns on smallholder well-being

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to assesses impacts of perceived weather changes (i.e. temperature, wind and rainfall) at the farm household level on income, poverty, wheat yield and use of timber and non-timber forest products in Pakistan’s Himalayan region. Mountains are fragile ecosystems – particularly for farming and in the context of climate change. Yet for many such geographies, there is limited empirical understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. Design/methodology/approach It uses a comprehensive field survey of 500 farmers from the Gilgit-Baltistan territory (comprising seven districts Ghizer, Gilgit, Diamer, Astore, Skardu, Ghance and Hunza-Nagar). A multivariate probit model first assesses the factors associated with perceived weather changes by farm households and a propensity score matching (PSM) approach then estimates the impacts of the perceived changes in temperature, wind and rainfall. Findings The empirical results show that an overwhelming majority of the farmers experience climate change, which primarily has adverse impacts on household income, poverty levels and wheat yields and increases dependence on both timber and non-timber forest products. Originality/value This paper contributes to the scanty literature on the climate change in the Himalayan region of Pakistan.