Housing construction costs and house rents fluctuations in an emerging property market: the case of Osogbo, Nigeria

Abstract

PurposeCost of construction of residential properties as well as its subsequent rent trends remain a major challenge to stakeholders in the property rental markets of emerging economies. This study examined the relationship between housing construction costs and house rents fluctuations in Osogbo, Nigeria, to provide information for informed investment decisions.Design/methodology/approachThe authors conducted a survey, where three sets of questionnaires were administered on building contractors; estate surveyors and valuers and private residential property owners. The data required comprise the estimated average construction costs and average market rents for two and three-bedroom bungalows in the study area from 2008 to 2018. These data were respectively sourced from all the 15 firms of building contractors and 25 firms of estate surveyors and valuers in Osogbo, Nigeria. Stratified random sampling was employed to select 180 property owners from three medium-density residential districts of Osogbo. Secondary data on macroeconomic variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Data collected were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistical tools.FindingsThe authors found a significant positive relationship (0.749) between construction costs and house rents trends; both variables maintained ascending trends. Construction costs and house rents inflation rates exhibited random fluctuations with the former having a higher mean inflation rate (10.47%). However, the difference was not statistically significant (p-value = 0.317 > 0.05). Respondents identified consumer price index (CPI) inflation among other macroeconomic variables as the strongest predictor of both construction costs and house rents fluctuations. However, evidence from further analysis of the time series suggested otherwise.Practical implicationsThe result confirms construction cost as one of the vital supply factors of the housing market, which is often pass through to house rents. The positive relationship between construction costs and house rents trends should trigger new development which, will, in turn, allow rental housing investments to expand into new areas with prospects for profits that could be earned by domestic and foreign investors.Originality/valueThis study to the best knowledge of the researchers is the first to relate housing construction cost to house rent in Osogbo, Nigeria; thereby adding to the body of knowledge in this field.