Financial Ratios and Probability of Default by Using the KMV-Merton Method in the Non-Financial Sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

Author:

Malasari D.1ORCID,Adam M.1ORCID,Yuliani .1ORCID,Hanafi A.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Sriwijaya University

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the predictions of the default probability in the non-financial sector of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and the mutual influence between financial ratios. The KMV–Merton method was used for the calculations. The study was conducted on the example of data from 18 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The scientific materials and documentation were analyzed with the help of the EViews. The authors made the followingconclusions: Return on Equity (ROE) has no effect on the probability of default; Current Ratio (CR) has no effect on the probability of default; Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) has a positive effect on the probability of default; Total Assets Turnover (TAT) has a negative effect on the probability of default. 

Publisher

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Subject

Management of Technology and Innovation,Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous),Finance,Development,Business and International Management

Reference29 articles.

1. Merton R. C. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. The Journal of Finance. 1974;29(2):449–470. DOI: 10.2307/2978814

2. Crosbie P., Bohn J. Modeling default risk. New York: Moody’s KMV Co.; 2003. 31 p. URL: https://www. moodysanalytics.com/-/media/whitepaper/before-2011/12–18–03-modeling-default-risk.pdf

3. Rudiyanto. Know how bond works 2. Bond Risk Analysis. 2012.

4. Hadad M. D., Wimboh S., Dwityapoetra S. B., Ita R. Probability of corporate default using the Merton model. Reseach Paper. Bank of Indonesia. 2004.

5. Fernandes J. Corporate credit risk modeling: Quantitative rating system and probability of default estimation. SSRN Electronic Journal. 2005. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.722941

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