North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

Author:

Sharma Shubhi1,Andrus Robert2ORCID,Bergeron Yves3ORCID,Bogdziewicz Michal4ORCID,Bragg Don C.5,Brockway Dale6,Cleavitt Natalie L.7,Courbaud Benoit8,Das Adrian J.9,Dietze Michael10ORCID,Fahey Timothy J.7,Franklin Jerry F.11,Gilbert Gregory S.12ORCID,Greenberg Cathryn H.13,Guo Qinfeng14,Hille Ris Lambers Janneke15,Ibanez Ines16ORCID,Johnstone Jill F.17,Kilner Christopher L.1ORCID,Knops Johannes M. H.18,Koenig Walter D.19,Kunstler Georges8,LaMontagne Jalene M.20ORCID,Macias Diana21,Moran Emily22,Myers Jonathan A.23ORCID,Parmenter Robert24,Pearse Ian S.25ORCID,Poulton-Kamakura Renata1,Redmond Miranda D.26,Reid Chantal D.1,Rodman Kyle C.27ORCID,Scher C. Lane1ORCID,Schlesinger William H.1ORCID,Steele Michael A.28,Stephenson Nathan L.9,Swenson Jennifer J.1,Swift Margaret1ORCID,Veblen Thomas T.2ORCID,Whipple Amy V.29,Whitham Thomas G.29,Wion Andreas P.26,Woodall Christopher W.30,Zlotin Roman3132,Clark James S.18ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;

2. Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309;

3. Forest Research Institute, University of Quebec in Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, QC J9X 5E4, Canada;

4. Department of Systematic Zoology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, 61-614 Poznan, Poland;

5. Southern Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Monticello, AR 71656;

6. Southern Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Auburn, AL 36849;

7. Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853;

8. Universite Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire EcoSystemes et Societes En Montagne, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation, et Environnement, 38402 St. Martin-d’Heres, France;

9. Western Ecological Research Center, US Geological Survey, Three Rivers, CA 93271;

10. Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215;

11. Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195;

12. Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064;

13. Bent Creek Experimental Forest, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Asheville, NC 28801;

14. Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709;

15. Department of Environmental Systems Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zurich, Zurich 8092, Switzerland;

16. School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;

17. Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99700;

18. Health and Environmental Sciences Department, Xian Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou 215123, China;

19. Hastings Reservation, University of California Berkeley, Carmel Valley, CA 93924;

20. Department of Biological Sciences, DePaul University, Chicago, IL 60614;

21. Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131;

22. School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, CA 95343;

23. Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63130;

24. Valles Caldera National Preserve, National Park Service, Jemez Springs, NM 87025;

25. Fort Collins Science Center, US Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO 80526;

26. Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523;

27. Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706;

28. Department of Biology, Wilkes University, Wilkes-Barre, PA 18766;

29. Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011;

30. Forest Inventory and Analysis, US Forest Service, Durham, NH 03824;

31. Geography Department, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405;

32. Russian and East European Institute, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405;

Abstract

Significance Suitable habitats for forest trees may be shifting fast with recent climate change. Studies tracking the shift in suitable habitat for forests have been inconclusive, in part because responses in tree fecundity and seedling establishment can diverge. Analysis of both components at a continental scale reveals a poleward migration of northern species that is in progress now. Recruitment and fecundity both contribute to poleward spread in the West, while fecundity limits spread in the East, despite a fecundity hotspot in the Southeast. Fecundity limitation on population spread can confront conservation and management efforts with persistent disequilibrium between forest diversity and rapid climate change.

Funder

National Science Foundation

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Programme d'Investissement d'Avenir

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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