Transoceanic pathogen transfer in the age of sail and steam-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Transoceanic pathogen transfer in the age of sail and steam

Published:2024-07-16 Issue:30 Volume:121 Page:
ISSN:0027-8424
Container-title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
language:en
Short-container-title:Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Author:

Blackmore Elizabeth N.¹²^ORCID,Lloyd-Smith James O.¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095

2. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520

Abstract

In the centuries following Christopher Columbus’s 1492 voyage to the Americas, transoceanic travel opened unprecedented pathways in global pathogen circulation. Yet no biological transfer is a single, discrete event. We use mathematical modeling to quantify historical risk of shipborne pathogen introduction, exploring the respective contributions of journey time, ship size, population susceptibility, transmission intensity, density dependence, and pathogen biology. We contextualize our results using port arrivals data from San Francisco, 1850 to 1852, and from a selection of historically significant voyages, 1492 to 1918. We offer numerical estimates of introduction risk across historically realistic ranges of journey time and ship population size, and show that both steam travel and shipping regimes that involved frequent, large-scale movement of people substantially increased risk of transoceanic pathogen circulation.

Funder

NSF

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Link

https://pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2400425121

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