Modeling environmentally mediated rotavirus transmission: The role of temperature and hydrologic factors

Abstract

Rotavirus is considered a directly transmitted disease due to its high infectivity. Environmental pathways have, therefore, largely been ignored. Rotavirus, however, persists in water sources, and both its surface water concentrations and infection incidence vary with temperature. Here, we examine the potential for waterborne rotavirus transmission. We use a mechanistic model that incorporates both direct and waterborne transmission pathways, coupled with a hydrological model, and we simulate rotavirus transmission between two communities with interconnected water sources. To parameterize temperature dependency, we estimated temperature-dependent decay rates in water through a meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis suggests that rotavirus decay rates are positively associated with temperature (n= 39,P< 0.001). This association is stronger at higher temperatures (over 20 °C), consistent with tropical climate conditions. Our model analysis demonstrates that water could disseminate rotavirus between the two communities for all modeled temperatures. While direct transmission was important for disease amplification within communities, waterborne transmission could also amplify transmission. In standing-water systems, the modeled increase in decay led to decreased disease, with every 1 °C increase in temperature leading to up to a 2.4% decrease in incidence. These effect sizes are consistent with prior meta-analyses, suggesting that environmental transmission through water sources may partially explain the observed associations between temperature and rotavirus incidence. Waterborne rotavirus transmission is likely most important in cooler seasons and in communities that use slow-moving or stagnant water sources. Even when indirect transmission through water cannot sustain outbreaks, it can seed outbreaks that are maintained by high direct transmission rates.