Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality

Published:2001-11-01 Issue:4 Volume:38 Page:537-549
ISSN:0070-3370
Container-title:Demography
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Lee Ronald¹,Miller Timothy²

Affiliation:

1. Demography and Economics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Ave., Berkeley, CA 94720

2. Demography, University of California at Berkeley, USA

Abstract

Abstract Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in 1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC tended to underproject gains, but by less than did Social Security. True e0 was within the ex ante 95% probability interval 97% of the time overall, but intervals were too broad up to 40 years and too narrow after 50 years. Projections to 1998 made after 1945 always contain errors of less than two years. Hypothetical projections for France, Sweden, Japan, and Canada would have done well. Changing age patterns of mortality decline over the century pose problems for the method.

Publisher

Duke University Press

Subject

Demography

Link

http://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-pdf/38/4/537/884950/537lee.pdf

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