The Worsening Shortage of College-Graduate Workers

Abstract

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections of occupational employment growth have consistently underpredicted the growth of skilled occupations. BLS currently projects that professional, technical, and managerial jobs will account for 44.5% of employment growth between 1988 and 2000, while we project they will account for 70% of employment growth. Between March 1988 and March 1991 these occupations, in fact, accounted for 87% of employment growth. The BLS’s projections of the supply/demand balance for college graduates have also been off the mark—predicting a surplus for the 1980s when, in fact, a shortage developed, and relative wage ratios for college graduates rose to all-time highs. We project that the supply of college educated workers will grow more slowly during the 1990s and that there will be a continuing escalation of wage premiums for college graduates.