An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we present a model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic simulated by a multi-agent system (MAS) based on demographic data and medical knowledge. Demographic data are linked to the distribution of the population according to age and to an index of socioeconomic fragility with regard to the elderly. Medical knowledge are related to two risk factors: age and obesity. The contributions of this approach are as follows. Firstly, the two aggravating risk factors are introduced into the MAS using fuzzy sets. Secondly, the worsening of disease caused by these risk factors is modeled by fuzzy aggregation operators. The appearance of virus variants is also introduced into the simulation through a simplified modeling of their contagiousness. Using real data from inhabitants of an island in the Antilles (Guadeloupe, FWI), we model the rate of the population at risk which could be critical cases, if neither social distancing nor barrier gestures are respected by the entire population. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The socioeconomic fragility index is used to assess mortality and also shows that the number of deaths can be significant.