Author:
Joint Ian,Jordan Michael B.,Carr Martin R.
Abstract
The evidence for variations in winter phosphate concentration as a component of the ‘Russell Cycle’ has been re-examined. The change from high phosphate concentrations prior to 1930 is the largest apparent variation in concentration through the period 1923–1987. However, these values are the result of a retrospective application in 1938, of a salt correction factor of 1–35. The justification for this factor is examined. It is concluded that there is sufficient uncertainty in the accuracy of the pre-1948 measurements of phosphate concentration to preclude their use in long time-series analysis. A statistical analysis of the post-1948 data shows that a simple first order autoregression model provides a perfectly adequate description of the data; the data can be considered as essentially random, with a small component of carry over from one year to the next. The evidence is weak that variations in winter concentrations of phosphate support the Russell Cycle hypothesis.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Cited by
10 articles.
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