The Bishops and Their Flock: John Kerry and the Case of Catholic Voters in 2004

Abstract

AbstractThis study evaluates the extent to which the 2004 well publicized Catholic Bishops' warnings and the Church Doctrinal Note mandating that parishioners oppose candidates who supported policies contrary to Church doctrine influenced Catholic support for presidential candidate John Kerry. Data were drawn from a 2004 national survey of 493 Catholic adults using random digit dial procedures and commissioned byTimemagazine. Multivariate analyses indicate that the influence of the Bishops' warnings and the Doctrinal Note diverged by respondents' religious belief. Liberal Catholics exposed to these messages were more likely to support Kerry while conservative Catholics exposed to these messages were more likely to support Bush. The net effect of leaders' messages appeared to have helped rather than hurt Kerry. Our findings point to a multiplicity of effects for religious leaders' messages and should provide a note of caution for religious leaders who take pronounced stances on political affairs.