Can Coherent Predictions be Contradictory?

Abstract

AbstractWe prove the sharp bound for the probability that two experts who have access to different information, represented by different $\sigma$-fields, will give radically different estimates of the probability of an event. This is relevant when one combines predictions from various experts in a common probability space to obtain an aggregated forecast. The optimizer for the bound is explicitly described. This paper was originally titled ‘Contradictory predictions’.