Life annuities of compulsory savings and income adequacy of the elderly in Singapore

Abstract

Singapore has a publicly managed central provident fund (CPF) system, which is compulsory and based on individual accounts with an explicit link between contribution and benefits. This paper assesses the adequacy of the CPF saving to meet the retirement needs of the elderly in Singapore. Instead of emphasizing the mechanism of accumulation, we focus on the expenditure side of the lifetime budget of the elderly and estimate the present value of retirement consumption (PVRC). The estimated PVRC is obtained by simulations through three major components: calibration of subsistence and medical expenses of the elderly; forecast of cohort survival probability by age and by sex; and generation of yield curves to discount the future cash flows. Our results indicate that the existing CPF-decreed minimum sum is inadequate to meet the future consumption needs of the female elderly. The inadequacy becomes more severe when medical expense is set at higher growth rates. Moreover, the monthly payouts of a single premium deferred annuity are computed as illustrative examples.