Optimal stopping in a semi-Markov shock model

Abstract

We examine a failure model for a system existing in a random environment. The system accumulates damage through a shock process and the failure time depends on the accumulated damage in the system. The cumulative damage process is assumed to be a semi-Markov process. Upon failure the system must be replaced by a new identical one and a failure cost is incurred. If the system is replaced before failure, a smaller cost is incurred. We allow a controller to replace the system at any stopping time before failure time. We consider the problem of specifying a replacement rule which minimizes the total long-run average cost per unit time.