Sensitivity of the Arctic Climate: A Factor in Developing Planning Strategies for Our Arctic Heritage

Abstract

Studies have illustrated a sensitivity of the climate of the Arctic to natural and human-induced perturbations which greater than that in mid-latitudes or the tropics. This may be due, in part, to positive feedback linkages between the atmosphere and the cryosphere. We are only beginning understand the nature of the process linkages within the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean-Biosphere system, however, and this is reflected in the discrepancies between various model simulations. This uncertainty increases our vulnerability to climatic change and variability. In the development of policy regarding management and development of our Arctic Heritage, we must attempt to reduce our vulnerability: we must be able to simulate the physical consequences of a perturbation with some veracity, and translate the results into the language of the policy analysts.Three areas of research are highlighted as being important contributions towards this objective. The first is the derivation of climatically significant parameters from remotely-sensed data. Our climatologies and model validations are based upon spatially-biased data which include undetermined errors. With remotely-sensed imagery, we have access to previously inaccessible regions as well as spatial consistency in the data. The second area of research the detailed study of micro- and mesoscale processes at climatic ‘oases’. We must understand processes at these scales, and their linkage to the macroscale, if we are to design realistic General Circulation Models to simulate new climate states. The third area is effective communication of our knowledge in a form amenable to policy analysis. Current research is directed towards evaluating the impact of climatic variation in terms of risk assessment, and consideration of the policy implications of possible future climatic regimes through scenario analysis.