Seasonal dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics and implications for multidrug-resistant infection risk assessment

Abstract

SUMMARYUnderstanding how seasonality shapes the dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) is essential in determining risks of transmission and drug resistance in (sub)tropical regions. We developed a relative fitness-based multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB model incorporated with seasonality and a probabilistic assessment model to assess infection risk in Taiwan regions. The model accurately captures the seasonal transmission and population dynamics of TB incidence during 2006–2008 and MDR TB in high TB burden areas during 2006–2010 in Taiwan. There is ∼3% probability of having exceeded 50% of the population infected attributed to MDR TB. Our model not only provides insight into the understanding of the interactions between seasonal dynamics of TB and environmental factors but is also capable of predicting the seasonal patterns of TB incidence associated with MDR TB infection risk. A better understanding of the mechanisms of TB seasonality will be critical in predicting the impact of public control programmes.