Study on the effect of measles control programmes on periodic structures of disease epidemics in a large Chinese city

Abstract

SUMMARYMeasles is regarded as a disease that can be eliminated by vaccination; however, disease epidemics still occur in Wuhan, China. This study explored the effect of measles control programmes on the periodic structure of disease epidemics in Wuhan. The monthly reported measles incidence from 1953 to 2008 was divided into pre-vaccine range (1953–1965) and post-vaccine range (1966–2008). For the incidence in each range, spectral analysis was conducted and power spectral density (PSD) was obtained. In PSD for the pre-vaccine range, the most dominant spectral line was observed at a 2·0-year period, as in the case of Japan. It was confirmed that spectral lines of periodic modes longer than a 1-year cycle of the incidence rates behave in response to the introduction of measles control programmes. The investigation of periodic structures of measles epidemics will contribute to effective measles control programmes in Wuhan.