Risk attribution ofCampylobacterinfection by age group using exposure modelling

Abstract

SUMMARYKnowledge on the relative importance of alternative sources of human campylobacteriosis is important in order to implement effective disease prevention measures. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of three key exposure pathways (travelling abroad, poultry meat, pet contact) for different patient age groups in Switzerland. With a stochastic exposure model data onCampylobacterincidence for the years 2002–2007 were linked with data for the three exposure pathways and the results of a case-control study. Mean values for the population attributable fractions (PAF) over all age groups and years were 27% (95% CI 17–39) for poultry consumption, 27% (95% CI 22–32) for travelling abroad, 8% (95% CI 6–9) for pet contact and 39% (95% CI 25–50) for other risk factors. This model provided robust results when using data available for Switzerland, but the uncertainties remained high. The output of the model could be improved if more accurate input data are available to estimate the infection rate per exposure. In particular, the relatively high proportion of cases attributed to ‘other risk factors’ requires further attention.