Economic Opportunity or Hardship? The Causes of Geographic Mobility on the Agricultural Frontier, 1860–1880

Abstract

Historians disagree about whether geographic mobility on the frontier reflected economic hardship or opportunity because of the inability to observe the outcomes of non-persisters. This article uses a new sample of frontier families linked between the 1860, 1870, and 1880 U.S. censuses to study mobility and wealth accumulation. Using the incidence of Confederate guerilla warfare in frontier counties to generate exogenous migration, I find the effect of persistence on wealth accumulation is insignificant. Also, young, blue-collar, and landless families—those with the highest net benefits of migration—were the most likely to move. These findings reflect widespread economic opportunity on the frontier.