The effects of global warming on soybean yields in a long-term fertilization experiment in Northeast China

Abstract

SUMMARYUnderstanding how crop systems might respond to recent climate change is fundamental to the successful adaptation of efforts for sustainable agriculture. In the present paper, records over the period 1987–2004 from a long-term agroecosystem experiment carried out in Northeast China were used to explore the impacts of global warming on soybean (Glycine max (L) Merr.) yields under different controlled fertilization treatments. The results indicated that soybean yields were closely related to growing season temperatures. In most fertilization treatments, soybean yields showed a significant negative response to higher daily maximum temperature and greater diurnal temperature range (DTR), whereas they showed a significant positive response to higher daily minimum temperature. Analysis of covariance showed that these responses of soybean yields to temperature variables did not differ across fertilization treatments. Overall, soybean yields have declined significantly due to the warming trends since 1987. This has been mainly attributed to the higher daily maximum temperature. The present report demonstrates that soybean production in Northeast China may face challenges due to global warming unless potential adaptation options are adopted. The true mechanisms behind these yield impacts need further investigation to address effective agricultural adaptations for soybean systems to adapt to global warming.