Strategic Scenarios of the Post-War Recovery of the Aviation Transport Sustainable Development: The Case of Ukraine

Abstract

The state and strategic scenarios to recover the sustainable development of air transport in Ukraine in the post-war period are studied. Research is fulfilled with the scientific justification of quantitative indicators and macro-indicators of maintaining the trajectory of sustainable development in the medium-term perspective. The starting point of strategizing is the concept of sustainable development in the safety dimension as a management construct that contains a general systemic view of the ways to transfer from the current state of the management object to the desired one and includes the stages of identification and strategizing. Identification involves an integral convolution with dynamic weighting coefficients and a formalized justification of the limits of safe existence. A new methodology is used for strategizing, which, unlike classical forecasting methods (the past determines the future), uses the principle "the future is determined by the trajectory into the future" and is based on the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory. According to the defined methodology, three strategic recovery scenarios were developed with the annual rates of growth of real aviation transport: realistic – 4.5%; optimistic – 7.2% and the scenario of entering the optimal zone of the EU countries – 10.4%. The resulting dynamics of components, indicators and macro indicators is, in fact, a strategic plan for the post-war recovery of the economy and entering the path of sustainable development. Threats are identified and institutional measures are proposed for airlines and national systems of airports and airfields, air navigation services, aviation industry, aviation education and science of Ukraine. The strategic orientations of the environmentalization of air transport of Ukraine in the post-war period and the strategic priorities of the recovery of the air transport infrastructure were formulated, and the necessity to pursue a course towards carbon neutrality was proved.