Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

The phenomenon of urban shrinkage has spread across the world as the political and economic landscape changes worldwide. The urban development in China has entered a post-development era characterized by coexisting urban expansion and local shrinkage whilst urbanization continues to progress in this country. This paper investigates the urban shrinkage of 80 cities in the Yellow River, China from the perspective of population and economy, based on urban shrinkage models drawing from western countries. It also analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in this area using a spatial panel data model. The results show the following. (1) The phenomenon of urban shrinkage in the Yellow River Basin has gradually occurred and the degree of shrinkage has aggravated. (2) The shrinking cities in the Yellow River Basin are mainly population-related and potential. (3) The phenomenon of urban shrinkage in the Yellow River Basin shows significant spatiotemporal differences. Shrinking cities are mainly distributed in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin and the number of shrinking cities has gradually increased over time. (4) In terms of influencing factors, financial, traffic, and medical conditions have a greater impact on population-related and economy-related shrinkage in these cities.