Spatial-temporal evolution of population aging in the yangtze river delta urban agglomeration of China

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) is China’s most representative region with remarkable economic development vitality. The purpose of this study is to provide valuable data analysis to actively respond to the population aging in China. We mainly focus on the spatial and temporal evolution of population aging in YRDUA from 2000 to 2020 using city-level population data. This study constructs a multi-dimensional index system to measure population aging including population aging degree, speed, and density. It finds out: (1) the elderly population rate (EPR), the elder-child ratio (ECR), and the elderly dependency ratio (EDR) in the YRDUA area are gradually increasing from 2000 to 2020. In addition, the trends of these indicators in various cities and regions are relatively consistent. All 27 cities in YRDUA entered an aging society, from the primary to the moderate aging stage from 2000 to 2010 and from the moderate to the hyper aging stage from 2010 to 2020. (2) the absolute and relative growth rate of EPR is increasing from 2000 to 2020. However, the absolute and relative growth rate of ECR is increasing from 2000 to 2010 and then decreasing from 2010 to 2020. These results indicate that the two-child policy adopted by the Chinese government plays a positive role. (3) the density level of the elderly population in the YRDUA evolved from low in 2000 to middle in 2010 and then to high in 2020. (4) There are remarkable differences in the process of population aging among three provinces and one city. The contribution of this study is mainly reflected in two aspects: firstly, it constructs a multi-dimensional index system to measure population aging; secondly, using this multi-dimensional index system, it systematically observes the spatial and temporal evolution of population aging from 2000 to 2020 in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration.