Market return spillover from the US to the Asia-Pacific Countries: The Role of Geopolitical Risk and the Information & Communication Technologies

Abstract

This study examines the market return spillovers from the US market to 10 Asia-Pacific stock markets, accounting for approximately 91 per cent of the region’s GDP from 1991 to 2022. Our findings indicate an increased return spillover from the US stock market to the Asia-Pacific stock market over time, particularly after major global events such as the 1997 Asian and the 2008 global financial crises, the 2015 China stock market crash, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2008 global financial crisis had the most substantial impact on these events. In addition, the findings also indicate that US economic policy uncertainty and US geopolitical risk significantly affect spillovers from the US to the Asia-Pacific markets. In contrast, the geopolitical risk of Asia-Pacific countries reduces these spillovers. The study also highlights the significant impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on these spillovers. Given the increasing integration of global financial markets, the findings of this research are expected to provide valuable policy implications for investors and policymakers.