Analyst optimism, information disclosure, and stock price collapse risk: Empirical insights from China’s A-share market

Abstract

This study selects stock data of listed companies in China’s A-share stock market from 2011 to 2020 as research samples. Using a fixed-effects model, it examines the impact of analyst optimism on stock price collapses and the moderating effect of information disclosure quality. Simultaneously, it conducts additional research to explore the potential transmission mechanisms involved. The main findings are as follows: Firstly, a positive correlation exists between analyst optimism and the risk of stock price collapse. Secondly, improving information disclosure quality of listed companies can enhance the positive impact of analyst optimism on the risk of stock price collapses and expedite the market’s adjustment of overly optimistic valuations of listed companies. Additionally, analyst optimism can increase the risk of stock price collapses by affecting institutional ownership. These findings provide theoretical support for regulatory authorities to revise and improve the "information disclosure evaluation" system, regulate the analyst industry, guide analyst behavior, and encourage listed companies to enhance internal governance and improve information disclosure practices.