Erosion and deposition vulnerability of small (<5,000 km2) tropical islands

Abstract

The tropics are naturally vulnerable to watershed erosion. This region is rapidly growing (projected to be 50% of the global population by 2050) which exacerbates erosional issues by the subsequent land use change. The issue is particularly of interest on the many (~45,000) small tropical (<5,000 km2) islands, and their >115M residents, where ecotourism and sediment intolerant ecosystems such as coral reefs are the main driver of their economies. However, vulnerability to erosion and deposition is poorly quantified in these regions due to the misclassification or exclusion of small islands in coarse global analyses. We use the only vulnerability assessment method that connects watershed erosion and coastal deposition to compare locally sourced, high-resolution datasets (5 x 5 m) to satellite-collected, remotely sensed low-resolution datasets (463 x 463 m). We find that on the island scale (~52 km2) the difference in vulnerability calculated by the two methods is minor. On the watershed scale however, low-resolution datasets fail to accurately demonstrate watershed and coastal deposition vulnerability when compared to high-resolution analysis. Specifically, we find that anthropogenic development (roads and buildings) is poorly constrained at a global scale. Structures and roads are difficult to identify in heavily forested regions using satellite algorithms and the rapid, ongoing rate of development aggravates the issue. We recommend that end-users of this method obtain locally sourced anthropogenic development datasets for the best results while using low resolution datasets for the other variables. Fortunately, anthropogenic development data can be easily collected using community-based research or identified using satellite imagery by any level of user. Using high-resolution results, we identify a development trend across St. John and regions that are both high risk and possible targets for future development. Previously published modeled and measured sedimentation rates demonstrate the method is accurate when using low-resolution or high-resolution data but, anthropogenic development, watershed slope, and earthquake probability datasets should be of the highest resolution depending on the region specified.