Analysis and prediction of the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in China’s eight economic regions

Abstract

Facing increasingly severe environmental problems, as the largest developing country, achieving regional carbon emission reduction is the performance of China’s fulfillment of the responsibility of a big government and the key to the smooth realization of the global carbon emission reduction goal. Since China’s carbon emission data is updated slowly, in order to better formulate the corresponding emission reduction strategy, it is necessary to propose a more accurate carbon emission prediction model on the basis of fully analyzing the characteristics of carbon emissions at the provincial and regional levels. Given this, this paper first calculated the carbon emissions of eight economic regions in China from 2005 to 2019 according to relevant statistical data. Secondly, with the help of kernel density function, Theil index and decoupling index, the dynamic evolution characteristics of regional carbon emissions are discussed. Finally, an improved particle swarm optimization radial basis function (IPSO-RBF) neural network model is established to compare the simulation and prediction models of China’s carbon emissions. The results show significant differences in carbon emissions in different regions, and the differences between high-value and low-value areas show an apparent expansion trend. The inter-regional carbon emission difference is the main factor in the overall carbon emission difference. The economic region in the middle Yellow River (ERMRYR) has the most considerable contribution to the national carbon emission difference, and the main contributors affecting the overall carbon emission difference in different regions are different. The number of regions with strong decoupling between carbon emissions and economic development is increasing in time series. The results of the carbon emission prediction model can be seen that IPSO-RBF neural network model optimizes the radial basis function (RBF) neural network, making the prediction result in a minor error and higher accuracy. Therefore, when exploring the path of carbon emission reduction in different regions in the future, the IPSO-RBF neural network model is more suitable for predicting carbon emissions and other relevant indicators, laying a foundation for putting forward more scientific and practical emission reduction plans.