Dynamics and control of typhoid fever in Sheno town, Ethiopia: A comprehensive nonlinear model for transmission analysis and effective intervention strategies

Abstract

This study presents a reliable mathematical model to explain the spread of typhoid fever, covering stages of susceptibility, infection, carrying, and recovery, specifically in the Sheno town community. A detailed analysis is done to ensure the solutions are positive, stay within certain limits, and are stable for both situations where the disease is absent and where it is consistently present. The Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion has been used and applied for the purpose of stability analysis. Using the next-generation matrix, we determined the intrinsic potential for disease transmission. It showing that typhoid fever is spreading actively in Sheno town, with cases above a critical level. Our findings reveal the instability of the disease-free equilibrium point alongside the stability of the endemic equilibrium point. We identified two pivotal factors for transmission of the disease: the infectious rate, representing the speed of disease transmission, and the recruitment rate, indicating the rate at which new individuals enter the susceptible population. These parameters are indispensable for devising effective control measures. It is imperative to keep these parameters below specific thresholds to maintain a basic reproduction number favorable for disease control. Additionally, the study carefully examines how different factors affect the spread of typhoid fever, giving a detailed understanding of its dynamics. At the end, this study provides valuable insights and specific strategies for managing the disease in the Sheno town community.