Impact of RMB internationalization on China’s competitiveness in financial services trade based on the VAR model: Evidence from China-US

Abstract

An increase in a currency internationalization levels can positively impact its credibility in international economic activities, and expand the effective demand and optimize the supply structure for the country’s financial service trade. In this way, a state can improve its financial service trade competitiveness in the international market. This study builds a vector autoregressive model based on time-series data of China-US financial services trade from 2010 to 2021, analyzes the impact of different quantitative indicators of RMB internationalization on this trade from the impulse response results, and validates the conclusions using various inspection methods. The results show that the increase in RMB internationalization helps to narrow the China-US financial services trade balance, but with a significant lag. And this effect is heterogeneous in different dimensions, demonstrated by the fact that the development of overseas RMB securities business is more important for the level of RMB internationalization to narrow the China-US financial services trade balance. Finally, among the specific measures to improve its financial services trade, China should focus on developing the international competitiveness of the traditional RMB deposit and loan financial sector, while the competition in the overseas market for high value-added financial businesses must also not be neglected. Furthermore, China needs to implement more targeted RMB internationalization development policies at different levels in the future to provide high-quality financial services to the rest of the world and aid in the economic recovery of the world in the "post-pandemic" era.