Microevolutionary hypothesis of the obesity epidemic

Abstract

The obesity epidemic represents potentially the largest phenotypic change in Homo sapiens since the origin of the species. Despite obesity’s high heritability, it is generally presumed a change in the gene pool could not have caused the obesity epidemic. Here we advance the hypothesis that a rapid change in the obesogenic gene pool has occurred second to the introduction of modern obstetrics dramatically altering evolutionary pressures on obesity—the microevolutionary hypothesis of the obesity epidemic. Obesity is known to increase childbirth-related mortality several fold. Prior to modern obstetrics, childbirth-related mortality occurred in over 10% of women in their lifetime. After modern obstetrics, this mortality reduced to a fraction of a percent, thereby lifting a strong negative selection pressure. Regression analysis of data for ~ 190 countries was carried out to examine associations between 1990 lifetime maternal death rates (LMDR) and current obesity rates. Multivariate regression showed LMDR correlated more strongly with national obesity rates than GDP, calorie intake and physical inactivity. Analyses controlling for confounders via partial correlation show that LMDR explains approximately 11% of the variability of obesity rate between nations. For nations with LMDR above the median (>0.45%), LMDR explains 33% of obesity variance, while calorie intake, GDP and physical inactivity show no association with obesity in these nations. The microevolutionary hypothesis offers a parsimonious explanation of the global nature of the obesity epidemic.