Validation of the Emergency Department-Paediatric Early Warning Score (ED-PEWS) for use in low- and middle-income countries: A multicentre observational study

Abstract

Early recognition of children at risk of serious illness is essential in preventing morbidity and mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aimed to validate the Emergency Department-Paediatric Early Warning Score (ED-PEWS) for use in acute care settings in LMICs. This observational study is based on previously collected clinical data from consecutive children attending four diverse settings in LMICs. Inclusion criteria and study periods (2010–2021) varied. We simulated the ED-PEWS, consisting of patient age, consciousness, work of breathing, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, heart rate, and capillary refill time, based on the first available parameters. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity (previously defined cut-offs < 6 and ≥ 15). The outcome measure was for each setting a composite marker of high urgency. 41,917 visits from Gambia rural, 501 visits from Gambia urban, 2,608 visits from Suriname, and 1,682 visits from Tanzania were included. The proportion of high urgency was variable (range 4.6% to 24.9%). Performance ranged from AUC 0.80 (95%CI 0.70–0.89) in Gambia urban to 0.62 (95%CI 0.55–0.67) in Tanzania. The low-urgency cut-off showed a high sensitivity in all settings ranging from 0.83 (95%CI 0.81–0.84) to 1.00 (95%CI 0.97–1.00). The high-urgency cut-off showed a specificity ranging from 0.71 (95%CI 0.66–0.75) to 0.97 (95%CI 0.97–0.97). The ED-PEWS has a moderate to good performance for the recognition of high urgency children in these LMIC settings. The performance appears to have potential in improving the identification of high urgency children in LMICs.